Commodity Market Report

Global thermal short-term outlook April 2022

29 April 2022

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29 April 2022

Global thermal short-term outlook April 2022

Report summary

The Russia-Ukraine war and Europe's quest for alternative suppliers continues to drive thermal coal shortages and extreme prices. Seaborne thermal coal prices rebounded upward from the end of March as several governments firmed plans to sanction Russian coal imports. Coal demand in Europe is expected to increase this year as the region struggles with natural gas supplies. Many countries have brought back on mothballed coal-fired units to ensure reliability. Yet, high prices are causing most other coal importers to retreat from the market.

High/low scenarios
China – soaring seaborne prices continued to curtail China’s buying interest
India – escalating coal crisis to drive imports growth
Japan – uncertainty around the Russia coal phase-out may cause more panic buying
Europe – prices to remain elevated as the market readies for a full Russian coal embargo
Australia – Supply set to recover, but labour challenges persist
Indonesia – strong demand and easing rainfall bodes well for exports
Russia – Europe stocks up on Russian coal before bans begin
South Africa – Rail uncertainty still a big risk for exports, while heavy rainfall persists

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
Australia thermal coal exports
NSW power netbacks to 5,500 nar