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Commodity Market Report

Global thermal short-term outlook December 2022

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03 January 2023

Global thermal short-term outlook December 2022

Report summary

December’s situation seems like a tale of two different thermal coal markets. On the one hand, benchmark high-CV coal prices, which entered the month on a strong note, started trending downwards as we approached the month-end. On the other hand, low-rank Indonesian coal prices, which fell for most of last month, kept rising throughout December. Read our latest report to read for our views on: - How will thermal coal prices trend as we enter 2023? - Will seaborne thermal coal demand remain strong through next year? - How will Covid-19 cases impact seaborne thermal coal demand? - Will long will it take seaborne thermal coal supplies to recover?

Table of contents

  • China – China relaxes the control on coronavirus
  • India – Intensifying winter to keep thermal coal demand robust
  • Europe – Ample coal supplies ahead of peak winter demand
  • South Africa – Exports to end the year on a tough note
  • High/low scenarios

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Australia thermal coal exports
  • Newcastle coal shipments (met and thermal)
  • Indonesia coal production and exports (Mt)
  • Indonesian mines 7-day average rainfall (mm/week)
  • SA monthly coal exports by country/region
  • Average rainfall across SA coal mines
  • Key prices - history and forecast
  • Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%

What's included

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