Global thermal short-term outlook October 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 October 2022

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Report summary

Benchmark coal prices finally showed signs of weakening over the last month, with robust European gas storage heading into winter. Even multiple major global coal supply events could not support prices over the last month. A coronavirus outbreak has slowed shipments along China’s major Daqin rail line, which was already impacted by scheduled maintenance. Heavy rains from the La Niña weather pattern have impacted coal mining in most of the major coal exporting regions – Australia, Indonesia, South Africa and Colombia.

India – festivities and the onset of winter to keep coal demand elevated
Europe – coal imports leave Europe in a strong position ahead of winter
Australia – wet weather impacts continue
Indonesia – production dips from record levels as wet weather increases
Russia – exports improve in October, but increased risk for 2023
South Africa – exports to Europe continue to surge
Colombia – heavy rains and railroad blockages impair coal exports
High/low scenarios

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Australia thermal coal exports
Newcastle coal shipments (met and thermal)
Indonesia coal production and exports (Mt)

Indonesian mines 7-day average rainfall (mm/week)
SA monthly coal exports by country/region
Average rainfall across SA coal mines
Key prices - history and forecast
Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%