Commodity Market Report

Global thermal short-term outlook October 2022

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Benchmark coal prices finally showed signs of weakening over the last month, with robust European gas storage heading into winter. Even multiple major global coal supply events could not support prices over the last month. A coronavirus outbreak has slowed shipments along China’s major Daqin rail line, which was already impacted by scheduled maintenance. Heavy rains from the La Niña weather pattern have impacted coal mining in most of the major coal exporting regions – Australia, Indonesia, South Africa and Colombia.

Table of contents

  • India – festivities and the onset of winter to keep coal demand elevated
  • Europe – coal imports leave Europe in a strong position ahead of winter
  • Australia – wet weather impacts continue
  • Indonesia – production dips from record levels as wet weather increases
  • Russia – exports improve in October, but increased risk for 2023
  • South Africa – exports to Europe continue to surge
  • Colombia – heavy rains and railroad blockages impair coal exports
  • High/low scenarios

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Australia thermal coal exports
  • Newcastle coal shipments (met and thermal)
  • Indonesia coal production and exports (Mt)
  • Indonesian mines 7-day average rainfall (mm/week)
  • SA monthly coal exports by country/region
  • Average rainfall across SA coal mines
  • Key prices - history and forecast
  • Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%

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    Global thermal short-term outlook October 2022

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