How will long-term contracts affect China's coal market in 2017? Report

Insight 04 January 2017

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Report summary

In November, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) mandated coal miners and coal users to sign long-term contracts for 2017 with a predefined pricing formula. In response to the NDRC's call, Shenhua and China Coal – the two largest coal miners in China – and the five largest power generation companies signed long-term contracts for 2017 in November. In December, more coal miners and users have signed long-term contracts. The long-term contracts for 2017 differ from previous years' practice in pricing and implementation. Regulating the price formula in the new contracts is among the NDRC's key measures to pull soaring thermal coal prices back down. The new contracts will reduce coal miners and users' exposure to spot prices, and reduce the volatility in domestic thermal coal markets.

Executive summary
The evolution of long-term coal supply contracts in China
- Before 2017: long-term contracts followed spot price trends on ad-hoc basis
- 2017 long-term contracts: the key characteristics
How will these long-term contracts affect China’s coal market?
- The fall of spot prices will accelerate
- Long-term contract price and spot price will converge
- High-cost imported coal supply will exit the Chinese market
Risks
Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

How will long-term contracts affect China's coal market in 2017?: Image 1
Historical price changes in annual contracts
Spot price trends by BSPI, CCTD and CCI
The gaps between the long-term prices and spot prices
The relationship between Indonesian coal exports to China and QHD 4500kcal/kg (NAR) prices