India coal short-term outlook April 2024

India’s electricity demand increased in Q1 2024 after witnessing a drop in November and December. Demand in the first two months of Q1 swelled by about 8% year-on-year. Coal-fired generation accounted for about 80% of the total power demand in Q1. India’s coal output grew over the same period, rising 11% year-on-year during the winter months. Coal production in February jumped about 12% year-on-year. Coal demand is expected to pick up during the summer months in India, and as a result, power plants are building up inventory to cater to increased electricity usage. India’s hot metal production was mixed during Q1 2024. It firmed 2% month-on-month in January due to an uptick in exports amid weak domestic demand. However, steel mills slashed production in February as demand remained tepid and inventory was high, resulting in a 7% month-on-month decline in hot metal production. We expect steel demand to slow down further with the start of the general elections in Q2 2024.