India coal short-term outlook January 2023
India’s thermal coal demand remained robust during Q4. Monsoon withdrawal led to a fall in hydro generation, boosting coal burn in Q4. Resumption of construction activities, which remained subdued during the monsoon, also fueled the coal demand growth. Domestic supply also regained its momentum during the quarter, after facing challenges during the monsoon season. As a result, thermal coal imports are expected to have declined significantly in Q4 versus Q3. Thermal coal demand is forecast to remain solid going forward. However, with domestic supplies staying healthy, imports will remain under pressure in the near term. After remaining subdued in Q4, we expect steel production to improve gradually as we enter 2023 on the back of a revival in steel exports and strong domestic demand. Subsequently, met coal imports will also rebound in Q1 on re-stocking interest and improved downstream demand. Read on to find out more about these issues and our forecast for the Indian coal market.