Commodity Market Report

India coal short-term outlook January 2023

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India’s thermal coal demand remained robust during Q4. Monsoon withdrawal led to a fall in hydro generation, boosting coal burn in Q4. Resumption of construction activities, which remained subdued during the monsoon, also fueled the coal demand growth. Domestic supply also regained its momentum during the quarter, after facing challenges during the monsoon season. As a result, thermal coal imports are expected to have declined significantly in Q4 versus Q3. Thermal coal demand is forecast to remain solid going forward. However, with domestic supplies staying healthy, imports will remain under pressure in the near term. After remaining subdued in Q4, we expect steel production to improve gradually as we enter 2023 on the back of a revival in steel exports and strong domestic demand. Subsequently, met coal imports will also rebound in Q1 on re-stocking interest and improved downstream demand. Read on to find out more about these issues and our forecast for the Indian coal market.

Table of contents

  • High premiums in the spot market to continue as demand remains robust
  • Strengthening economic activities to keep thermal coal demand strong in 2023
  • Met coal demand to rebound in Q1 2023 on restocking interest and improved downstream demand
  • Domestic supplies to remain robust in 2023 to complement demand growth
  • The sixth round of commercial coal mine auctions launched
  • India slashes export duty on steel, extends RoDTEP scheme and re-imposes import duty on coking coal and coke

Tables and charts

This report includes 12 images and tables including:

  • CIL performance in the spot market
  • CFR India prices of imported thermal coal
  • Key thermal coal prices: history/forecast
  • Key metallurgical coal prices: history/ forecast
  • Monthly coal-fired generation
  • Monthly hot metal production
  • Month-end coal stocks at power plants
  • Monthly crude steel production
  • Total raw coal production
  • Total raw coal supplies
  • Seaborne thermal coal imports by origin
  • Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by origin

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    India coal short-term outlook January 2023

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    India Coal Short Term Outlook January 2023.xlsx

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