Commodity Market Report

India coal short-term outlook June 2019: can H1 imports growth be sustained?

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India’s electricity generation from utilities increased by 6.6% or 15 TWh year-on-year in April-May, which was largely met by hydro and renewables. Coal-based generation also increased by 2.5%, resulting in an increase in coal consumption by 4%. Coal imports continued to receive support from the realisation of tenders, increased generation from imported coal based power plants and a strong non-power sector demand. However, coal stocks situation has improved significantly from the lows of Q4 2018, both at power plants as well as mine sites. With normal rains expected to keep hydro strong this season, we take into account all these factors and discuss how these will affect the coal imports in H2 2019.

Table of contents

  • Comfortable stock levels and soft seaborne prices keep a check on spot prices
  • Strong demand results in record-high imports
  • Domestic production slows as focus shifts to diluting stocks first
  • Rising PCI rates result in higher imports replacing some high-cost hard coking coals

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

  • CIL performance in the spot market
  • CFR India prices of imported coal
  • Key thermal prices - history/forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Key met prices - history/ forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Monthly coal-fired generation
  • Monthly hot metal and steel production
  • Domestic coal stocks at power plants
  • Imported coal stocks at power plants
  • CIL raw coal production
  • CIL coal despatches
  • Seaborne thermal imports by origin

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    India coal short-term outlook June 2019: can H1 imports growth be sustained?

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