India coal short-term outlook September 2019: sluggish economy slowing coal demand

India’s electricity generation from utilities decreased by 1% in August 2019 and provisional numbers for September also showing a decline of more than 2%. Nuclear generation was up 37% due to the higher availability of the fleet, and with a robust hydro performance supported by strong rainfall, coal generation remained under pressure, declining in August by 3%. Slow economic growth resulted in declining cement and sponge iron production in August. All of these resulted in lowering coal demand and ultimately imports. Even the coal stocks situation has worsened at power plants as well as mine sites, declining by more than 30 Mt over Q3. With expectations of slow economic growth over Q4, we analyse and discuss the potential impact of all these factors on the coal imports in Q4 2019.