Commodity Market Report

India coal short-term outlook September 2019: sluggish economy slowing coal demand

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09 October 2019

India coal short-term outlook September 2019: sluggish economy slowing coal demand

Report summary

India’s electricity generation from utilities decreased by 1% in August 2019 and provisional numbers for September also showing a decline of more than 2%. Nuclear generation was up 37% due to the higher availability of the fleet, and with a robust hydro performance supported by strong rainfall, coal generation remained under pressure, declining in August by 3%. Slow economic growth resulted in declining cement and sponge iron production in August. All of these resulted in lowering coal demand and ultimately imports. Even the coal stocks situation has worsened at power plants as well as mine sites, declining by more than 30 Mt over Q3. With expectations of slow economic growth over Q4, we analyse and discuss the potential impact of all these factors on the coal imports in Q4 2019.

Table of contents

  • Slow demand and soft seaborne prices keep a check on spot prices
  • Lower industrial production slowing coal demand
  • Imports stable as domestic production remains under pressure
  • Flooding at CIL’s Dipka mine

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

  • CIL performance in the spot market
  • CFR India prices of imported coal
  • Key thermal prices - history/forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Key met prices - history/ forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Monthly coal-fired generation
  • Monthly hot metal and steel production
  • Domestic coal stocks at power plants
  • Imported coal stocks at power plants
  • CIL raw coal production
  • CIL coal despatches
  • Seaborne thermal imports by origin

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms_india_short_term_outlook_september_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 320.44 KB

  • Document

    India coal short-term outlook September 2019: sluggish economy slowing coal demand

    PDF 940.70 KB

  • Document

    India coal short-term outlook September 2019: sluggish economy slowing coal demand

    ZIP 1.14 MB

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