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Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2022

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30 November 2022

Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2022

Report summary

A month is a long time in the aluminium market. The official cash price ended October at just below US$2200/t, weighed down by concerns over global demand and the adherence to a strict zero-Covid policy in China. Market uncertainty was also heightened by the LME’s consultation on whether to exclude Russian brands from the market. Indeed, sentiment during LME Week was generally bearish. Two main developments have dominated price action during November each one working in the opposite direction for prices. The likelihood that China will relax it strict zero Covid policy and the decision by the LME to not ban or otherwise alter how it deals with Russian metal.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Asia ex-China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 31 images and tables including:

  • Investment continues to support economic activity
  • Automotive output and sales growth falls back, but still in positive territory
  • Property market down and out in 2022
  • Japan – Apparent consumption of rolled and extruded products
  • Sharp decline in Chinese semis exports to EU
  • EU foil imports from Turkey
  • US & Canada – Shipments of rolled products
  • Summary of October production, kt
  • Other ROW cuts (kt)
  • Global monthly output (annualised)
  • China aluminium capacity changes in September and expected changes in Q4, ktpa
  • Yunnan monthly hydropower generation
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price
  • World ex-China refining cuts (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2021-2024, (kt)
  • China alumina exports, kt
  • China alumina cuts in November, ktpa
  • World ex-China alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2022

    PDF 1.26 MB