Insight
Metallurgical coal energy transition outlook 2026
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Report summary
Steel decarbonisation is progressing more slowly than previously anticipated, but the long-term direction remains clear. Under our Net Zero scenario, global metallurgical coal demand falls to 422 Mt by 2050 as steelmakers increasingly adopt scrap, DRI and EAF-based production routes. Premium hard coking coal gains share as producers seek emissions reductions from existing blast furnace assets. Seaborne trade volumes also decline, but certain regions such as India help to sustain demand. Benchmark PLV hard coking coal prices fall to US$166/t under Net Zero and US$187/t under the Pledges scenario by 2050, compared with US$235/t in the base case. Read our report to understand: • How slower EAF adoption is extending blast furnace utilisation. • What 2°C and 1.5°C pathways mean for metallurgical coal demand. • How trade flows will evolve as demand shifts towards India and Southeast Asia. • What our latest PLV hard coking coal price forecasts imply under the Pledges and Net Zero scenarios.
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