Commodity Market Report

North America coal long-term outlook H2 2017: No federal carbon policy case

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12 February 2018

North America coal long-term outlook H2 2017: No federal carbon policy case

Report summary

In this No Carbon sensitivity, a future without any US federal carbon pricing effectively assumes a world in which federal climate change efforts are tabled and  power sector carbon emissions are allowed to continue to grow unabated.   However, given the current momentum in investment seen within US power & renewables markets, even without a carbon tax to incentivize further de-carbonization, power sector emissions grow relatively slowly throughout the outlook. 

Table of contents

    • This No Carbon case represents the absence of any kind of federal carbon policy but maintains non-federal CO2 cap-and-trade programs and regional CO2 markets such as California-AB32, RGGI and Canadian initiatives
    • Removal of the Federal carbon tax assumptions leads to significant inter-fuel competition and altered plant dispatch dynamics post-2028

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    nacms no carbon case reports h2 2017.pdf

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    North America coal long-term outlook H2 2017: No federal carbon policy case

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    North America coal long-term outlook H2 2017: No federal carbon policy case

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    Executive summary

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