PCI coal outlook: Low volatile coals facing greater competition

The PCI trade is poised to grow from 54 Mtpa in 2016, to 77Mtpa by 2035. But, like all metallurgical coals, demand growth is almost completely reliant on the expansion of the Indian steel industry. Unfortunately, India's need for imported PCI will grow only modestly until around 2024, before accelerating, meaning the annual trade in PCI increases by 3 Mt to 2020 and 6 Mt to 2025. Low volatile PCI will remain the highest value PCI product, due to its higher net carbon content, and coke replacement ratio. But a new breed of mid-volatile and high-volatile PCIs, including the so-called "2nd tier" PCIs, will provide stiffer competition, particularly in the medium term whilst total demand remains quite flat.