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Russian coal exports soar as costs decline – but will it last?

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Report summary

The depreciating Rouble is the major factor behind strong Russian coal export growth in 2014. We estimate that at current exchange rates the average total FOB cash costs are 35% lower in US$/t than in 2013. However the potential Rouble strengthening in late 2015 and a 10% rise in rail tariff are likely to negatively affect the Russian coal export growth in 2015 2016.

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    Russian coal exports soar as costs decline – but will it last?

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Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Russia’s exports growing strongly while domestic demand is falling
  • Rouble depreciation and rail tariff freeze boost cost competitiveness
  • Coal exports are also affected by other market, social and political factors
  • 2015 may see a change in the cost trend
  • Conclusions

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

Images

  • Total (FOB) cash costs – Russian metallurgical export coal (US$/tonne)
  • Total (FOB) cash costs – Russian thermal export coal (US$/tonne, adjusted to 6322 kcal/kg GAR)
  • Operating margins – Russian export metallurgical coal (US$/tonne)
  • Operating margins – Russian export thermal coal (US$/tonne)

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