Russian coal exports soar as costs decline – but will it last?
The depreciating Rouble is the major factor behind strong Russian coal export growth in 2014. We estimate that at current exchange rates, the average total FOB cash costs are 35% lower in US$/t than in 2013. However, the potential Rouble strengthening in late 2015 and a 10% rise in rail tariff are likely to negatively affect the Russian coal export growth in 2015-2016.
Table of contents
Russia’s exports growing strongly while domestic demand is falling
Rouble depreciation and rail tariff freeze boost cost competitiveness
Coal exports are also affected by other market, social and political factors
2015 may see a change in the cost trend
Tables and charts
This report includes 4 images and tables including:
Total (FOB) cash costs – Russian metallurgical export coal (US$/tonne)
Total (FOB) cash costs – Russian thermal export coal (US$/tonne, adjusted to 6322 kcal/kg GAR)