Thermal coal markets short-term outlook August 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 August 2021

This report is currently unavailable

Share link

First name
Last name
Job Title
Company
Email
Telephone

Country

Message

Consent

Please keep me informed about Wood Mackenzie products, services and events.

Submit Category

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

It’s been another record-breaking month for coal prices supported by hot summer demand in the northern hemisphere. The resurgence in coronavirus cases seems to have only added supply concerns without much demand disruption. China’s benchmark coal prices hovered at above RMB1,000/t with the domestic production ramp-up delayed since July. Seaborne coal supply responses have improved marginally. How long will current prices stay? European coal-to-gas switching economics and low inventory have justified the high gas prices, but the commissioning of Russia's new gas pipeline later this year may change the picture. Will we see a knock-on impact on coal prices like 3 years ago?

High/low scenarios
China – record-high QHD price will result in 14% year-on-year increase in seaborne thermal coal imports in 2021
India – strong demand momentum continues
Vietnam: weak hydro supports coal but surge in Covid cases poses downside risk
Australia – Covid Delta variant spread yet to hit mining activity
Indonesia – government-imposed export bans to have minimal impact
Russia – rail disruption continues to limit export growth

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
China domestic coal production
India coal-fired generation