Thermal coal markets short-term outlook February 2022
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
- General discussion and base case
- High/low scenarios
- China – negative price arbitrage curtailed China’s demand for seaborne products
- India – high seaborne coal prices keeping importers at bay
- EMEARC – supply tightness to keep prices elevated
- Global – high CV supply could increase by 7-22 Mt in 2022
- Australia – rainfall and rail maintenance restricts February exports to 9-year lows
- Indonesia – wet weather and export ban dragging down output
- Russia – rail woes continue as producers brace for impacts from the Ukraine conflict
- South Africa – h igh rainfall adds to rail problems
- Colombia – looming election slows movement on reopening coal mines
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Risk scale of Russian thermal coal export by importers (based on 2021 actual trades)
- Key prices - history and forecast (nominal US$/t)
- Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
- European coal imports by supply country
- Global high CV supply
- Outlook for global high CV thermal coal exports
- Australia thermal coal exports
- Outlook for Australia high CV thermal coal exports
- Indonesia coal production and exports (Mt)
- Indonesian mines 7-day average rainfall (mm/week)
- Average rainfall across SA coal mines
- Worst impacted SA export coal mines (1 Jan to 23 Feb)
What's included
This report contains:
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