Commodity Market Report

Thermal coal markets short-term outlook January 2022

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29 January 2022

Thermal coal markets short-term outlook January 2022

Report summary

Seaborne thermal coal markets were short coal again this month with the announcement of Indonesian’s coal export ban for January. The Indonesian government ordered the ban on exports 1 January, as the utility PLN reported critical levels of coal stockpiles. The government required producers to replenish utility inventories by 20 days of supply. With high international prices for coal, Indonesian producers had likely been putting off domestic market obligations in favour of higher profits on the export market. The ban sent the markets into turmoil as thermal exports from Indonesia represent around 45% of total seaborne exports. As the ban lifts in February, global coal prices should ease. However, the seaborne thermal market will still need to make up for the loss of Indonesian tonnage and then some, as other supply regions have yet to recover fully post pandemic.

Table of contents

  • China – China imported 246 Mt of seaborne thermal coal in 2021
  • India – imports revive on stockpile replenishment and strong industrial demand
  • South Korea – new annual cap
  • Europe – supply disruptions could hinder coal generation
  • Australia – better performance expected in 2022 as La Niña subsides
  • Indonesia – export’s ban eased, however restriction likely to weigh on production
  • Russia – new eastbound quotas could boost thermal coal exports
  • South Africa – coal exports plunge to 1996 low
  • General discussion and base case
  • High/low scenarios

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

  • China’s seaborne imports and the QHD prices
  • European coal imports by supply country
  • Australia thermal coal exports
  • Rainfall at key mines (ranked by total rainfall over Nov21 to 19 Jan22)
  • Indonesia coal production and exports (Mt)
  • Indonesian mines 7 day average rainfall (mm/week)
  • Indonesia coal producers budget plan for 2022
  • SA total coal exports by port
  • SA Monthly thermal coal exports
  • Key prices - history and forecast (nominal US$/t)
  • Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Thermal coal markets short-term outlook January 2022

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