Thermal coal markets short-term outlook November 2021
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
- General discussion and base case
- Breakeven cashflow suggests price support at US$80/tonne
- High/low scenarios
- China: Australian coal comes back
- India: Softness in seaborne prices and strong demand set to revive imports
- South Korea: Impact of winter curtailment will be mild this year
- Vietnam: Weak power demand in the south hurts imports
- Europe: Coal and gas supply shortages expected to keep prices high
- Global: Cashflow to stay strong in months ahead
-
Australia: Near term outlook revised lower on wet weather, flooding
- Supplier update
- Indonesia: lower output in November
- Russia: Amajor accident at a Kuzbass mine could raise supply risk
- Colombia: Election frontrunner could pose hurdles for future coal production
Tables and charts
This report includes 13 images and tables including:
- Key prices - history and forecast (nominal US$/t)
- 2021 Breakeven prices (Newcastle 6,000 nar benchmark equivalent)
- Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
- India coal fired generation
- India coal supply and power sector stocks
- Power generation vs fossil fuel share %
- South Korea coal-to-gas switching
- Operating cashflow at November 2021 averages (operating margin less sustaining capex)
- Australia thermal coal exports
- La Niña risk – a look back at 2009-12
- Indonesia coal production and exports (Mt)
- Indonesian mines 7 day average rainfall (mm/week)
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
North America coal short-term outlook June 2024
Summer brings higher delivered volumes, increased generation, and inventory withdrawals.
$5,000Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2018: weak demand drives prices down
Weak demand in Asia and high ARA stocks drive prices down.
$5,000Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook June 2024
Hopes for a price rebound rest on a post-monsoon demand recovery and supply shortages
$5,000Recently viewed reports
Commodity Market Report
NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables Strategic Planning Outlook 2023
$8,000Insight
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in the 2050 Net Zero world
$950Insight