Thermal coal markets short-term outlook November 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
- General discussion and base case
- Breakeven cashflow suggests price support at US$80/tonne
- High/low scenarios
- China: Australian coal comes back
- India: Softness in seaborne prices and strong demand set to revive imports
- South Korea: Impact of winter curtailment will be mild this year
- Vietnam: Weak power demand in the south hurts imports
- Europe: Coal and gas supply shortages expected to keep prices high
- Global: Cashflow to stay strong in months ahead
-
Australia: Near term outlook revised lower on wet weather, flooding
- Supplier update
- Indonesia: lower output in November
- Russia: Amajor accident at a Kuzbass mine could raise supply risk
- 1 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key prices - history and forecast (nominal US$/t)
- 2021 Breakeven prices (Newcastle 6,000 nar benchmark equivalent)
- Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
- India coal fired generation
- India coal supply and power sector stocks
- Power generation vs fossil fuel share %
- South Korea coal-to-gas switching
- Operating cashflow at November 2021 averages (operating margin less sustaining capex)
- Australia thermal coal exports
- La Niña risk – a look back at 2009-12
- Indonesia coal production and exports (Mt)
- 1 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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