Insight
Ukraine's refinery war comes for Russian coal: diesel shortages put production at risk
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Ukraine's sustained attacks on Russian oil refineries have created a new vulnerability for Russia's coal industry by disrupting domestic diesel supply, a critical input for open-pit mining. Coming on top of an already severe financial crisis driven by weak coal prices, rising rail costs and logistics constraints, diesel shortages are increasing production costs, curtailing output and reinforcing the outlook for structurally lower Russian coal exports over the medium term.
Table of contents
- Key findings
- Three structural headwinds before the first strikes
- Why diesel is the inescapable vulnerability
- Production: cost inflation and output curtailment
- Rail logistics: the compounding constraint
- Government prioritisation risk
- Black Sea exposure: the next front for coal exports
- Financial stress: an industry on the edge
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Open-pit coal mining: cost stucture (Kuzbass suface mine)Russian coal export routes by volume (Russian railways volumes, 2025)Russian Railways Eastern Polygon expansion estimated schedule
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Russian coal sector profit/loss 2023-2026E (USD$ billion)Latest Russian coal exports outlook vs H1 2025 outlookRussian major coal transport routesFar East ports
What's included
This report contains:
