What happens if the US stops new coal mine development? Report

Insight 29 October 2018

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Report summary

While the current US administration is attempting to change the narrative about the domestic coal market, little can likely be done to change its trajectory. We do not expect coal mine expansion will stop in the US, but we do believe it is a risk worth examining. Increasingly, financial institutions are limiting their current or future coal investments, which makes it difficult for coal miners to raise the capital necessary to construct or expand mining complexes.

Approach to analysis
- Case descriptions
- Potential mine development
Findings
- Case 1a: The effects in a CO 2 -constrained future
- Case 2a: New mine development possibilities without a federal CO 2 policy
- The effects on the broader North American energy market of no new mine development
Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

Mine expansion in the base case (Mstpa)
Change in basin production – base case vs base case with no new mines (Mst)
Mine expansion in the no federal CO2 policy case (Mstpa)

Change in basin production: no federal CO2 policy case vs no federal CO2 policy case with no new mines (Mst)
Change in ILB coal prices compared with Case 1
Change in PRB coal prices compared with Case 1
Change in NAPP coal prices compared with Case 1
Increase in natural gas demand (bcfde)