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Will China's benchmark thermal coal price keep falling?

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20 April 2020

Will China's benchmark thermal coal price keep falling?

Report summary

The price for Qinhuangdao 5,500 has been trending downward since mid-February, dropping RMB93/t to RMB483/t on 17 April. Existing oversupply, coronavirus and strong imports as well miners offering highly competitive prices have been the key drivers. For the first time since September 2016, the price has fallen out of the range the government deems reasonable (between RMB 500/t and RMB570/t). It is now close to RMB470/t, the point at which the National Development and Reform Commission had said it would intervene. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTD) has appealed to miners to stop dumping products and asked local governments in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia to regulate mining operations. But will such intervention help in the short term? We don’t think so. Read our report to find out why.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Qinhuangdao 5,500 falls below ‘reasonable’ range
  • What has caused the price to fall?
  • Will the price return to above RMB500/t soon?
  • What will drive prices for the rest of the year?

Tables and charts

This report includes 1 images and tables including:

  • Qinhuangdao 5,500 price falls below ‘reasonable’ range

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    Will China's benchmark thermal coal price keep falling?

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