Accelerated energy transition 2-degree scenario (2019): what happens to the gas industry?

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The industry is still recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and commodity price crash. But throughout the crises, decarbonisation has remained high on the industry’s agenda, and key players continue to commit to their energy transition targets. Wood Mackenzie has developed an Accelerated Energy Transition Scenario - 2 (AET-2), which considers how the world can limit global warming under 2 ˚C by 2050. We have utilised our new Global Gas Model Next Generation to understand the impact of the AET-2 scenario on global gas supply and prices, supply mixes in key regions as well as the global LNG outlook.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Gas demand is resilient, but the risks grow
  • Despite pressure on gas demand, Asia still needs LNG
    • Russian piped flows to Europe – how much of the market will Russia take?
  • US – energy transition impacts cost curve of gas
  • Are new LNG projects still needed?
  • Price implications
  • What this means for global gas supply
  • Bumpy road ahead
  • Appendix

Tables and charts

This report includes 12 images and tables including:

  • Global carbon emissions
  • CAGR by fuels
  • Global gas demand by scenario
  • Gas demand change 2019-40 – comparison of scenarios
  • 2040 Asian gas balance – AET-2 vs base case
  • LNG supply/demand balance
  • Top LNG exporters
  • DES costs to Japan of selected LNG projects*
  • Price outlook
  • Changes to global supply by status in 2040
  • Stranded gas (discovered), bcm@40MJ/m3*
  • Europe supply mix

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Accelerated energy transition 2-degree scenario (2019): what happens to the gas industry?

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