Accelerated energy transition 2-degree scenario (2019): what happens to the gas industry? Report

Insight 17 November 2020

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Report summary

The industry is still recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and commodity price crash. But throughout the crises, decarbonisation has remained high on the industry’s agenda, and key players continue to commit to their energy transition targets. Wood Mackenzie has developed an Accelerated Energy Transition Scenario - 2 (AET-2), which considers how the world can limit global warming under 2 ˚C by 2050. We have utilised our new Global Gas Model Next Generation to understand the impact of the AET-2 scenario on global gas supply and prices, supply mixes in key regions as well as the global LNG outlook.

Executive summary
Gas demand is resilient, but the risks grow
Despite pressure on gas demand, Asia still needs LNG
European import dependency will persist
- Russian piped flows to Europe – how much of the market will Russia take?
US – energy transition impacts cost curve of gas
Are new LNG projects still needed?
Price implications
What this means for global gas supply
Bumpy road ahead
Appendix