Can Europe cope if Russian gas supply is disrupted? (03 February)

Russia has deployed more than 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border and in the annexed Crimea, rising concerns of a full-scale war. Western countries are discussing a broad spectrum of sanctions to respond to potential Russian escalation. At the same time, European gas market has been struggling amid weak Russian gas imports and low storage levels. Disruptions to Russian gas imports can plunge Europe deeper into the energy crisis, but how likely is this? In this insight we analyse what could happen to the European gas market if the crisis escalates into a full-scale military action. We look at four different scenarios and answer the key questions: • How reliant is Europe on Russian gas? • How long can Europe last without Russian gas? • What are the alternative gas sources if Russian imports are disrupted?