Commodity Market Report
China gas 2021 outlook to 2050
Report summary
China's gas demand is expected to grow by 100% to 2050 in our base case. Most of the gas demand additions will materialise in the current decade. We expect the average growth rate to be 5.5% a year between 2020 and 2030, before slowing to 1.7% a year between 2030 and 2040. Gas demand will peak in the mid-2040s. In this report, we explore the key drivers of gas demand in China and supply sources required to meet that demand. Key topics include: Which sectors are driving gas demand? What is the potential of domestic supply? How do pipeline imports and LNG imports fit in the overall balance? What is the infrastructure development supporting demand creation? How are the industrial landscape and regulatory framework evolving?
Table of contents
- Introduction
- All sectors will see gas demand increase, but those with high seasonal profiles will contribute more to incremental volumes
- Domestic production will remain the backbone in gas supply mix; long-term production potential hinges on unconventional sources
- Import requirements open doors for global piped gas and LNG suppliers
- Market players are adapting to gas sector reforms
- Reaching carbon neutrality could alter gas projections, notably after 2030
-
Regulatory structure
- Key trends
- Upstream policies
- Midstream policies
- Downstream policies
- Pricing
-
Players overview
- Upstream suppliers
- Midstream pipeline operators
- Downstream distribution companies
- Economic outlook
- Gas demand overview
- Industrial sector (including feedstock)
- Residential, commercial and space heating
- Transport sector
- Power sector
- Gas production overview
- Domestic conventional supply
- Unconventional supply: tight gas
- Unconventional supply: CBM and CMM
- Unconventional supply: synthetic natural gas (coal-to-gas)
- Unconventional supply: shale gas
-
Gas imports – pipeline
- Central Asia
- Turkmenistan
- Uzbekistan
- Kazakhstan
- Myanmar
- Russia
- Russia East - Power of Siberia
- Russia Far East
- Russia West-Altai
- Power of Siberia II via Mongolia
-
Gas imports – LNG
- LNG corporate and contracting
-
Trunk pipelines
- Existing
- Under development and proposed
- Domestic gas infrastructure – underground storage facilities
-
Gas import infrastructure – LNG
- China Oil & Gas Piping Network Corporation (PipeChina)
- CNOOC and its joint ventures
- CNPC-PetroChina
- Sinopec
- Non-NOCs
- Gas import infrastructure – pipelines
- Supply cost stack
- Pricing of pipeline imports
- City-gate prices
-
Pipeline tariffs
- Inter-provincial transmission pipeline tariffs
- Intra-provincial transmission and local distribution tariffs
-
Prices at end-user level
- Power
- Industrial and commercial
- Residential
- Transport
- Value-added tax on natural gas
- Appendix – end-user prices in provincial capital cities
Tables and charts
This report includes 41 images and tables including:
- China gas demand by sector
- China gas demand by province
- China gas market balance
- Supply changes vs H2 2020 outlook
- China power market balance
- Economic indicators
- Total China gas demand by sector
- Total China gas demand by province
- Industrial fuel gas demand by provinces
- Feedstock gas demand by top province
- Residential and commercial gas demand
- Winter space heating gas demand
- Transport gas demand by provinces
- Transport gas demand by vehicle types
- Gas demand in power generation by region
- Power generation mix
- Domestic Gas Supply by Basin
- Gas Supply Conventional and Unconventional
- Domestic gas supply by basin (%)
- Supply growth by region/basin
- Ownership structure of PipeChina, as of July 2021
- China underground gas storage facilities map
- LNG Receiving Capacity by Status and by Company, as of July 2021 (mmtpa)
- China supply cost by project – full life breakeven vs import contract price
- China supply cost by basin – remaining breakeven plus tariff assumption to Shanghai
- Assumed Turkmenistan contract price into Shanghai (2021 terms)
- Assumed Russian contract price into Beijing (2021 terms)
- Historical levels of Shanghai city-gate price ceiling or benchmark
- Provincial city-gate prices benchmark, as of July 2021
- Trans-Asia gas pipeline route map
- Russia-China gas pipeline route map
- LNG contracts signed by non-NOCs in 2020/21
- Contracted LNG by import company
- Contracted LNG by exporting country
- China contracted LNG by project and buyer (SPAs and HOAs)
- China supply and demand balance
- Key domestic gas infrastructure - existing
- China LNG terminals map
- Tariff rate by individual pipeline company, effective as of April 2019
- Tariffs for typical routes from supply sources to coastal China
- End user prices and provincial city-gate price benchmark (as of July 2021)
What's included
This report contains:
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