China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2019
Report summary
Table of contents
- Introduction
- Structure of gas demand gradually changing with increasing seasonality
- Gas production ramps up faster near term, underpinned by conventional sources; long-term potential hinges on unconventional sources
- LNG imports will break 100 mmtpa by the early 2030s, despite more pipeline imports
- Reforms will reshuffle the industrial landscape
- Non-NOCs will increase their presence, slowly
- Will China exert greater influence on global LNG pricing?
- Key data tables
-
Gas sector policy and regulation
- Midstream reform is gaining momentum
- Midstream-related regulations are being updated to pave way for third-party access
- Local governments streamline end-user gas prices
- China still reviewing its fuel-switching policies
- China raises US LNG import tariffs to 25%
- Regulatory structure
- Gas demand overview
- Industrial sector (including feedstock)
- Residential and commercial sector (including winter space heating)
- Transport sector
- Power sector
- Domestic conventional supply
- Unconventional supply: tight gas
- Unconventional supply: CBM and CMM
- Unconventional supply: synthetic natural gas (coal-to-gas)
- Unconventional supply: shale gas
- Supply cost stack
-
Gas imports – pipeline
- Central Asia imports
- Turkmenistan
- Uzbekistan
- Kazakhstan
- Myanmar imports
- Russian imports
- Russia East
- Russia West
- Russia Far East
- Assumed import pipeline contract pricing
- Gas imports – LNG
-
Trunk pipelines
- Existing
- Under development and proposed
- Domestic gas infrastructure – underground storage facilities
-
Gas import infrastructure – LNG
- CNOOC and its joint ventures
- CNPC-PetroChina
- Sinopec
- Non-NOCs
- Regulation overview
-
City-gate gas pricing
- Trial stage (2011-2013)
- Two-tier pricing stage (2013-2015)
- Price adjustments and ending of cross-subsidisations for residential and fertiliser sectors (2015-present)
- City-gate gas pricing in policy versus in reality
- The role of trading platforms
-
Pipeline tariffs
- Interprovincial transmission pipeline tariffs
- Provincial transmission and local distribution tariffs
-
Prices at end-user level
- Power
- Industrial and commercial
- Residential
- Transport
- Value-added tax on natural gas
- Appendix – end-user prices in provincial capital cities
Tables and charts
This report includes 43 images and tables including:
- China gas demand by sector
- China gas demand by province
- China gas market balance
- Supply changes vs H2 2018 outlook
- China power market balance
- Economic indicators
- China energy policy making and regulatory structure
- Total China gas demand by sector
- Total China gas demand by province
- Industrial fuel Gas Demand by Provinces
- Fertilisers and Chemicals gas demand by top province
- Residential/commercial gas demand by province
- Winter heating gas demand by province
- Transport gas demand by provinces
- Transport gas demand by vehicle types
- Gas demand in power generation by region
- Power generation mix
- Domestic gas supply by basin
- China conventional/unconventional supply
- Domestic gas supply by basin (%)
- Supply growth by region/basin
- China supply cost by project – full life breakeven vs import contract price
- China supply cost by basin - remaining breakeven plus tariff assumption to Shanghai
- Assumed Turkmenistan contract price into Shanghai (2019 terms)
- Assumed Russian contract price into Beijing (2019 terms)
- China contracted LNG by project and buyer (SPAs and HOAs)
- Contracted LNG by import company
- Contracted LNG by exporting country
- China underground gas storage map
- LNG receiving capacity outlook to 2025, as of August 2019 (mmtpa)
- SHPGX and CQPGX transaction volumes
- Key facts
- Key changes to analysis from H2 2018 publication
- Summary of13th five year plan energy targets
- Trans-Asia gas pipeline route map
- Russia-China gas pipeline route map
- Key domestic gas infrastructure - existing
- China LNG terminals map
- China Supply and Demand Balance
- LNG Demand (Contracted vs Uncontracted)
- Tariff rate by individual pipeline company, effective as of April 2019
- Tariffs of major pipeline routes, effective as of April 2019
- End-user prices vs. competing fuel (as of July 2019)
What's included
This report contains:
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