Constraints on Russian gas into Europe: good news for LNG!

Europe's gas import requirements increased by more that 70 bcma in the period 2014-17. Russia was the main contributor, picking up about 65% of the increase, most of it via Ukraine. As we forecast an increase of similar scale by the mid-2020's, could gas imports from Russia surge accordingly? In this paper, we highlight pipeline infrastructure constraints within Europe that may prevent Russian gas exports to reach northwest Europe. First with existing infrastructure, and then in the early 2020's, when the pipelines Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream will be operational. Assuming full utilisation of all the export routes, we believe that pipeline bottlenecks within Europe will limit Russian pipe export potential to about 235 bcma in the medium term. Until new pipelines are built, northwest Europe may need to compete for LNG imports in the global market.