Insight

Russia’s journey from piped to LNG exports

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Europe import dependency is growing, and Russia is well placed to increase its gas exports owing to its world-class resource base and proximity to the region. But does this mean a significant increase in Russia’s piped exports to Europe? Not necessary. In this insight, we look at various long-term options for Russia gas exports growth and compare the feasibility of construction of additional pipelines versus development of new LNG projects. We look at regulatory, fiscal and corporate implications of different options, as well as analyse their competitiveness between each other and with key global rivals.

Table of contents

    • Europe’s gas import growth – what will Russia’s role be?
    • European gas market dynamics are changing, making it harder for Russia to compete
    • Infrastructure availability is key – Ukraine is necessary to maintain flexible supply, particularly in the near term
    • In the long term, Russia is likely to push for more direct export routes, but new pipelines are unlikely
    • Pipeline challenges are mounting
    • Is LNG the way to go?
    • Not without consequences for Gazprom and the Russian state
    • Corporate dynamics
    • LNG is competitive against new pipeline options
    • The impact on the state budget will be limited
    • Conclusion
    • Appendix
    • Notes on chart A.1. Delivered costs of selected pre-FID projects into Europe
    • Notes on chart 1. Historic Russian flows by major pipeline into Europe
    • Notes on chart 3. Russia piped flows into Europe and piped export capacities
    • Notes on chart 4. Russia piped flows into Europe by key export routes and piped export capacities
    • Notes on chart 5. Key LNG projects by company
    • Notes on chart 6. Delivered costs of Russian gas into Germany via different routes
    • Notes on chart 8. Russia gas export capacity available to Europe – LNG accounts for over 20%

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

  • Russia - gas flows by major pipeline
  • European import dependency
  • Russia piped flows into Europe and piped export capacities
  • Russia piped flows into Europe by key export routes and piped export capacities
  • Possible routes of additional direct infrastructure into Europe
  • Key LNG projects by company
  • Delivered costs of Russian gas into Germany via different routes
  • Contributions of hydrocarbon taxes into the state budget
  • Russia gas export capacity available to Europe – LNG accounts for over 20%
  • Russia’s gas reserves and resources
  • Delivered costs of selected pre-FID projects into Europe

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Russia shifts to LNG from piped gas.xlsx

    XLSX 168.91 KB

  • Document

    Russia’s journey from piped to LNG exports

    PDF 1.71 MB