Energy crisis: Impact on European gas markets (3 Nov)

Despite President Putin’s announcement on the 27th, Russian flows are down at the end of October. There is limited capacity booked along Yamal-Europe and no additional capacity booked via Ukraine above ship-or-pay levels. LNG sendouts and Norwegian production increased significantly to compensate for lower Russian flows. Industrial demand reacted to high energy prices. We estimate that industrial consumption in October was down 9% compared to last year. In our second October report, we explore the following: • How much Russian gas flows have fallen by Yamal route? • How is Equinor’s reduced gas injection increasing Norway’s export volumes? • Which country raised most LNG regas in Northwest Europe? • What impacts does the sharp drop in coal prices have on gas to power demand?