Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q4 2023

TTF prices have reduced substantially for this winter sitting close to 40 Euros/MWh as the market becomes increasingly comfortable with supply after warm weather and weak demand earlier this year led to record-high storage inventories. The outlook for next year is positive. We anticipate storage levels will reach 98% by the end of summer 2024 under normal weather conditions. Europe's LNG imports in the next two years will be slightly less than previously forecasted, as we have downgraded our global LNG supply view by approximately 3 mmtpa for the next two years adding to price risks. However, more production in Norway and the start-up of new Algerian fields plus continuing weak gas demand helps to compensate for the reduced LNG availability for Europe and lower Russian pipeline flows.