Europe gas demand long-term outlook H2 2019

After contracting in 2018, European gas demand rebounded in 2019 and will grow further in 2020, supported by low prices. In the power sector gas will continue to benefit from its increased competitiveness through the 2020s, depressing the contribution of coal generators. However, growth will eventually be reversed as decarbonisation efforts intensify. Europe’s energy transition drives sustained growth in wind and solar power capacity, placing pressure on the market space available to gas and reducing the fuel’s contribution. In the residential and commercial sector fuel switching and efficiency gains will depress gas demand. The largest residential demand reductions come from Northwest Europe where electrification targets are most aggressive. Demand in the industrial sector will be resilient with gas difficult to substitute in many sub-sectors and end-uses.