Europe indigenous gas supply long-term outlook H2 2019 Report

Commodity Market Report 23 January 2020

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Report summary

European indigenous gas production declines through our forecast but there are bright spots across the region and companies continue to invest heavily in exploration and production. The UK and Romania offer contrasting views of the potential for significant discoveries across mature and frontier basins. Supportive fiscal terms will be vital to unlocking new fields as well as encouraging further development. But over the long-term, investment will compete with proven low-cost reserves in other regions, and political and regulatory hurdles will need to be addressed to encourage sustained investment in Europe.

Expected closure ahead for Groningen
The UK remains the largest producer through most of our forecast
High hopes for Romania's Black Sea with new government in place
Norway remains a key producer but faces challenges amidst the current oversupply
Are there potential new opportunities elsewhere?
Could Europe provide an alternative market for EastMed supply?
EastMed pipeline participants retain ambitions for 2022 FID following non-binding supply deal
Greenfield liquefaction facility in Cyprus cannot be ruled out
Unconventional supply
Future challenges and opportunities