Commodity market report
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23 Pages

Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base case - H1 2015


Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base case - H1 2015

Report summary

In the medium term, we see upside in European and Asian spot prices as Europe continues to require discretionary Russian gas and oil prices recover. In the period 2018-2023, we forecast a collapse in spot price as a result of a global oversupply with growing LNG output from Australia and the US.  Thereafter, market fundamentals are expected to rebalance, but abundant global gas and LNG supply will result in prices being consistent with the cost of new supply

What's included?

This report includes 4 file(s)

  • Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base case - H1 2015 PDF - 511.97 KB 23 Pages, 2 Tables, 32 Figures
  • global gas markets- macro assumptions-h1 2015.xls XLS - 712.50 KB
  • Global Gas Markets - Prices - H1 2015.xls XLS - 194.00 KB
  • Global Gas Markets - Base Case - H1 2015.xls XLS - 1.25 MB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Introduction
    • Scenario overview
      • Contestable demand
      • Competing Supply
      • Contestable demand vs competing supply
  • Prices
    • North America
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Trade
    • Pacific Basin - LNG
      • Atlantic Basin - LNG
      • Atlantic Basin - Europe
    • Americas
      • LNG Imports
      • LNG Exports
  • Economic outlook
    • Brent oil price assumption
    • Coal price assumption
    • Carbon price assumption
      • US carbon prices
      • European carbon prices

In this report there are 34 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Global contestable market
    • Global competing supply availability
    • Excess capacity
  • Prices
    • Global gas spot price forecast
    • Prices: Image 2
    • Russian contract prices, Gazprom price and NBP
    • Real rouble exchange rate forecast vs. oil price
    • Gazprom delivered cost curve into Europe - 2025
    • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2025)
    • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
  • Trade
    • Pacific LNG Demand by market
    • Pacific contestable demand by market
    • Pacific LNG demand and supply
    • Pacific LNG contestable demand and competing available supply
    • Pacific LNG flows by source
    • Global LNG availability and Pacific/ME market
    • Net LNG available to Atlantic
    • Europe demand v contracted supply
    • Europe contestable demand and competing supply
    • Europe demand and supply mix
    • Europe contestable demand and supply mix
    • North America LNG Imports
    • Trade: Table 1
    • South America LNG Imports*
    • US Gulf Coast LNG exports by destination
    • West Canada, Alaska and US West Coast LNG exports by destination
    • LNG Flows from Atlantic to Pacific
    • Trade: Table 2
  • Economic outlook
    • Q1 2015 Regional GDP growth
    • Regional GDP growth - CAGR 2015-2035
    • Brent oil price
    • Global coal prices
    • EU ETS carbon price
    • US and Canada carbon price
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