Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term outlook H1 2019: Base Case

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What’s inside this report?

Read our report for in-depth analysis of global gas markets, including the factors that are likely to have the greatest influence on supply and demand.

Our experts also share their near-term FID forecasts and longer-term global LNG build forecasts.


Why buy this report?

Get answers to all your questions about global gas markets, including:

  • How will the market balance in the short-term?
  • What's driving demand growth in Asia Pacific?
  • What are our forecasts for global gas prices in the medium to long term?

This report comes with charts and data sets, including this one, tracking gas demand in the Pacific region – just one of the regions the report covers in detail – out to 2040. Scroll down for the full table of contents.

21 August 2019

Global gas markets long-term outlook H1 2019: Base Case

Report summary

The much-anticipated LNG oversupply has finally materialised. With 38 Mt of new LNG supply this year, there was always going to be too much for the market to absorb. And with Asian LNG demand growth slowing, excess LNG has flooded Northwest Europe and prices have crashed, dragging Asian LNG prices down too. With European hub prices now trading below US$3.5/mmbtu, the European gas market is finely balanced making the risk of US LNG under-utilisation a reality – a risk that will extend to 2020. Post-2020, the market will change quickly. A lack of LNG investment decisions from 2015-18 means there will be limited supply growth over 2021-24. Combined with rising demand in Asia, this will result in lower LNG imports to Europe. And with declining European domestic production, the requirement for Russian pipeline imports will rise towards 200 bcma in 2023/24, supporting higher prices. The price recovery phase will be brief, before a new wave of supply sets off the next cycle from 2024/25.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

  • European prices, Henry Hub and US LNG cash costs
  • Global price differentials
  • Global LNG supply-demand (un)balance
  • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2040)
  • Pacific and Middle East LNG demand by market
  • Pacific uncontracted demand by market
  • Pacific LNG contestable demand & competing available supply
  • Pacific LNG supply and demand
  • Pacific LNG flows by source
  • Global LNG availability and Pacific/ME market
  • Net LNG available to Atlantic
  • Russia pipe vs LNG imports to Europe
  • Europe supply-demand gap - contracted volumes
  • Europe supply-demand gap - uncontracted volumes
  • Europe import dependency
  • Europe supply-demand balance
  • North America LNG imports
  • South America LNG imports
  • US Lower 48 exports by destination
  • Canada LNG exports
  • Oil price forecast (Brent crude)
  • Coal price forecast
  • Carbon (EUA) price forecast

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global Gas Service - Base Case - H1 2019.xls

    XLS 1.22 MB

  • Document

    global_gas_markets_-_macro_assumptions_-_h1_2019.xls

    XLS 3.49 MB

  • Document

    global-gas-service_base-case-h1-2019_comparison-to-prev-outlook.xlsx

    XLSX 181.71 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook H1 2019: Base Case

    PDF 1.37 MB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook H1 2019: Base Case

    ZIP 2.09 MB

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