Insight
Russia/Ukraine crisis: Recession risk and what it means for oil demand
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The combination of Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts to the global economy and persistent inflation now raises the risk of a potential recession, knocking global GDP off its post-pandemic recovery footing in 2022 and 2023. Our current short-term oil demand forecast is based on a forecast of slowed, but continued GDP growth. In contrast to our base case, this downside risk scenario assumes a recession in both the EU and the US starting later this year and slowed global GDP growth in 2023. We explore the implications for global demand including: • How would the pace of global demand recovery change • Will global liquids demand exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2023? • What regions would see the greatest impact in this scenario? • How is transport fuel demand affected in 2022-2023
Table of contents
- Please download the slide pack on the right-hand side under 'Report downloads'.
Tables and charts
No table or charts specified
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Middle East Conflict: what it means for Oilfield Services
Middle East conflict hits OFS activity and Q1 2026 earnings; 28 projects at risk as Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts Gulf operations.
$1,350
Insight
Delayed Energy Transition Oils: A Crude Awakening?
Wood Mackenzie’s Delayed Energy Transition scenario: what does it means for oil and refining
$1,350
Insight
US tariffs and implications on global gas and LNG markets
Three scenarios to assess gas/LNG pricing dynamics
$950
