Global gas markets long-term outlook H2 2020: LNG Supply

2020 proved to be a roller-coaster year for LNG production. Replicating the record-growth levels of 2019 was always going to be difficult, but the pandemic disrupted LNG supply in multiple ways. Under construction projects were delayed, capital budgets were slashed, and new projects investments were pushed back. Near term output was disrupted too, as record low LNG prices in the summer caused offtakers to cancel cargoes from the US and Egypt. Despite disruptions and uncertainty, LNG production grew during 2020. From predicted growth of 25 mmtpa at the beginning of the year, growth of just over 3 Mt was recorded. Supply growth in the medium term will be benign – averaging just under 3% CAGR through to 2025. However, we expect supply growth to accelerate between 2025 and 2027, as the market absorbs the ~90 mmtpa of LNG which took FID in late 2018 and 2019.