Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015

08 July 2015

Get this report

$2,700

You can pay by card or invoice

Share link

First name
Last name
Company
Email
Telephone

Country

Message

Consent

Please keep me informed about Wood Mackenzie products, services and events.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

08 July 2015

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's latest view on Norway's role as a major gas exporter, both in terms of its gas export potential (the inputs to our global view formulation) and the outlook for gas exports from this source (namely the outputs from our analysis).

Executive summary
Supply
- Europe’s second largest importer of gas, adjusting flexible volumes to market conditions
- Aasta Hansteen is a significant new source of supply, but other investments have been delayed
- Exploration success (including Barents Sea) is required to sustain production longer-term
Costs
- Cost of marginal Norwegian supply is rising
Demand
Infrastructure
- Pipe
  - Over 150 bcm of pipe export capacity to Europe
- LNG
- Tariffs
Supply-demand balances
- Export potential
  - Sufficient export potential to meet NPD forecast
Contracts
- Spot price linkage has increased in recent years; contract supply flexibility has decreased
Trade
- Strategy
- Market access
- Recent Trends
  - Despite mild weather Norway exceeded NPD forecast in 2014
- Outlook
  - Medium term
    - Norway maintains export levels and benefits from spot price exposure
  - Long term
    - Norway contributes to oversupply from 2019, new Polarled developments are delayed, YTF (including Barents) needed to sustain long-term exports
Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:

Map - key domestic and export infrastructure
Indigenous production potential
Domestic demand by sector

Export capacity
Contracted exports vs export potential
Breakeven cost of Norway pipe supply to Europe*
Existing LNG projects
Export outlook v export potential
Export supply mix
Existing export pipelines
Under construction pipelines
Possible pipelines
Available export volumes vs available export capacity
Norway pipe and LNG exports
Norway production vs NPD (2013, 2014)

What's included

This report contains:

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015.xls

XLS 381.50 KB
Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015

PDF 874.16 KB
Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2015

ZIP 955.75 KB