Indonesia gas market outlook Report

Commodity Market Report 05 February 2024

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Report summary

2023 put Indonesia back on the global exploration map with discoveries at Geng North-1 and Layaran-1. Timely commercialisation of technical resource and recent discoveries remains the key to Indonesia’s gas supply-demand balance. We expect gas demand growth to be moderate through 2030 at 1% CAGR, as coal generation remains strong and industrial growth remains constrained by economic headwinds. Robust growth is expected in the mid-to-long term with support from coal-to-gas switching and strong growth in overall energy demand. We maintain our view that Indonesia will remain a net gas and LNG exporter through the coming decade, but the country will switch to net importer in the 2040s.

Gas demand growth remains moderate in the near term, in the face of economic headwinds and strong coal power generation. But growth will strengthen and be robust in the mid to long-term, sustained by coal-to-gas switching, more dynamic industrial activities, and population and economic growth.
2023 put Indonesia back on the global exploration map with discoveries at Geng North-1 and Layaran-1.
Robust LNG demand growth throughout the forecast, against a backdrop of legacy fields’ depleting and strong demand growth.
Regulated prices introduced in 2020 have failed to spur up gas demand upside as expected.