Italy gas and LNG markets long-term outlook 2019

Italy accounts for 15% of European natural gas demand. Demand picked up over the last few years and we expect continued growth in the short-term to offset the loss of coal-fired generation. The government released its National Energy plan for the next 10 years, which incorporates a phase out of coal by 2025. Italy imports around 90% of its gas needs. The country has some indigenous gas production but requires piped and LNG supply, predominantly from Russia, Algeria, Libya and Qatar. The new TAP (Trans Adriatic) pipeline, connecting Italy to Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz gas field will enhance supply options, with first gas expected mid-2020. Increased availability of supply into the Italian market puts the country in prime position to become an important gas hub. It also strengthens the position of Italian buyers as companies enter contract negotiations with the likes of Algeria to ensure closer alignment with hub prices.