Malaysia LNG market outlook

As the country's indigenous supply declines and gas demand grows, we expect Malaysian LNG demand to reach 7.7 mmtpa by 2026, surpassing current regas capacity. Even with factoring in the potential expansion of RGTSU, the country will need to further expand the capacity by around 2030. The SSGP was partially shut down in Aug 2023, affecting the gas that used to be transported via the pipeline to the MLNG complex. Coupled with the dalay of several key developments, MLNG outputs will face feedgas challenges in the near-term. In the longer term, despite Sarawak gas will be sufficient to maintain a production plateau of around 25-26 mmtpa by around 2030, more developments are needed to maintain outputs after this period. Gas market liberalisation continues as regulated prices cease and MRP takes hold. Third-party access framework is already in place. However, no new players to date due to high LNG prices, weak domestic demand growth and limited space in the market for new contracts.