A raft of recent announcements has sent TTF into an upward spiral. Russia reducing flows via Nord Stream, the outage at Freeport, and French nuclear downgrades all point to a tighter European gas market. And while summer consumption will still be covered, storage refill is at risk. In this analysis, we looked at possible scenarios for the European gas balance this winter. The situation is evolving rapidly, and Europe may end up in a world without Russian gas sooner than expected.