Commodity Market Report
North America gas markets short-term outlook: Record LNG and Mexican exports support Henry Hub gas prices
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Report summary
The US is now the second largest global gas exporter, thanks largely to record LNG and Mexican outflows. Add in gas destined for Canada, and the US is currently exporting over 20 bcfd. This is expected to grow even higher in the future, lending support to Henry Hub gas prices. Higher prices will likely lead to reversals in economic coal-to-gas displacement, though, throughout the injection season. Our end of season projection is around the five-year average currently, likely limiting Henry Hub upside for this summer. What about the winter, though? Continued capital discipline from producers, and potential new LNG, could tighten the balances into a large deficit.
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