Commodity Market Report
North America gas short-term outlook: Winter price risk premia already eroding
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Report summary
October is currently forecast to rank among one of the warmest for the month back to 1950. Our end of October 2024 US gas storage levels has increased to 3.95 Tcf, or 203 Bcf higher than the five-year average. With downward winter demand and export adjustments, our end of March 2025 storage has also increased to 2.01 Tcf, a surplus of 135 Bcf. The market also seems to be in consensus with the view that oversupplied US gas market conditions will continue this winter, as forward prices are already eroding before the season even begins. This month’s North America gas commodity report seeks to answer: • How much incremental heating demand will occur with a normal winter? • Will gas generation start to give back market share to coal generation? • How much supply growth will occur when production curtailments are unwound?
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