Commodity Market Report

North America gas short-term outlook: Winter price risk premia already eroding

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

October is currently forecast to rank among one of the warmest for the month back to 1950. Our end of October 2024 US gas storage levels has increased to 3.95 Tcf, or 203 Bcf higher than the five-year average. With downward winter demand and export adjustments, our end of March 2025 storage has also increased to 2.01 Tcf, a surplus of 135 Bcf. The market also seems to be in consensus with the view that oversupplied US gas market conditions will continue this winter, as forward prices are already eroding before the season even begins. This month’s North America gas commodity report seeks to answer: • How much incremental heating demand will occur with a normal winter? • Will gas generation start to give back market share to coal generation? • How much supply growth will occur when production curtailments are unwound?

Table of contents

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Tables and charts

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    October 2024 STO.pdf

    PDF 658.75 KB

  • Document

    Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 78.00 KB

  • Document

    Basis Outlook.xls

    XLS 319.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply Demand Balances.xls

    XLS 405.50 KB

  • Document

    Storage Outlook.xls

    XLS 228.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply Detail.xlsx

    XLSX 1.44 MB

  • Document

    Demand Detail.xls

    XLS 869.00 KB

  • Document

    LNG Detail Incl Export.xls

    XLS 358.50 KB

  • Document

    Power Demand Curve.xls

    XLS 68.00 KB

  • Document

    Industrial Index.xls

    XLS 366.50 KB

  • Document

    NGL Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 3.62 MB

  • Document

    Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xlsx

    XLSX 405.26 KB