Commodity Market Report

Hopes of a return to “normal” winter erased: North America power and renewables January 2020 short-term outlook

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Henry Hub moved below $2 in January as hopes of a return to normal winter fades – It’s the lowest prices since spring 2016 and lowest during January since 1999. With gas prices sub $2/mmbtu, it shows the displacement of coal by gas all the way into MISO Central/North and SPP. In PJM, gas and coal have swapped 15 GW in 5 years. The amazing ‘structural’ shift in PJM has shown the gas curve moving vertically up and coal vertically down due to more CCGT getting built and more coal getting retired.

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  • Document

    Hopes of a return to normal winter erased January 2020 short-term outlook_pr.pdf

    PDF 889.05 KB

  • Document

    Base Case_Delivered_Fuel_Prices_Nominal_1_31_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 92.90 KB

  • Document

    Base Case_Delivered_Fuel_Prices_Real_1_31_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 87.01 KB

  • Document

    Base Case_Load_Forecast_1_31_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 2.55 MB

  • Document

    Base Case_Prices_Sparks_IHR_Darks_Nominal_1_31_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 1.43 MB

  • Document

    Base Case_Prices_Sparks_IHR_Darks_Real_1_31_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 3.14 MB

  • Document

    Base Case_Short_Term_Fundamentals_1_31_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 807.04 KB