North America gas weekly update: shoulder season doldrums continue

Another triple digit weekly gas storage injection is expected. It would be the 10th triple digit injection of the 2019 injection season that has benefited from record US gas production levels that have so far overwhelmed demand growth. This is in despite of record power demand along with both record LNG and Mexican exports occurring. The US Lower 48 working gas storage deficit to the five-year average is expected to flip to a 13 bcf surplus for the week ending 11 October. Since the start of the injection season, growing US production levels have erased the near 500 bcf of storage inventory deficit versus the five-year average while the surplus to last year increases further to 493 bcf. Absent colder weather and a marked slowdown of production growth bearish market sentiment is expected to persist during the should season doldrums.