North America gas weekly update: Three buck chuck Report

Commodity Market Report 04 May 2021

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Report summary

Henry Hub gas prices have rallied near 50 cents from its early shoulder season lows nearby $2.50/mmbtu. Although it pales in comparison to the even stronger rally in global gas prices, $3 gas this early was not expected. What must continue for the rally in Henry Hub gas prices to continue? • Production currently impaired due to maintenance to remain downgraded by capital disciplined producers. • Higher gas prices do not result in significant downgrades to power demand. • Continuation of record LNG exports as the global gas arbs keep US cargos well “in the money”. • The rise of CDDs leads to record Mexican gas exports. • Weather cooperates with a rise in CDDs above normal and keeps hurricane season muted.