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Commodity Market Report 29 March 2024

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Report summary

Steel will witness another year of uncertainty in 2024 as macro headwinds are still at play. Continued underperformance in the Chinese property market will keep steel demand rangebound, with a downward bias in 2024. Steel demand across the developed world is expected to improve in 2024 from a low base, but we have lowered our growth forecasts for these regions, given the continued impact of monetary tightening on steel-consuming sectors, namely construction. Over the long term, China will remain a laggard. Global growth will be driven by strong demand from emerging economies like India and Southeast Asia. The steel supply mix is in for a revamp as decarbonisation initiatives intensify. The shift to low-carbon steelmaking will elevate the production share of EAF from 28% in 2022 to 49% by 2050.

Uncertainty continues for steel following two years of economic weakness
- Mature economies and India to drive growth in 2024; Chinese demand to remain under pressure as construction continues to decline
Global demand set to rise at CAGR 0.8% through 2050, driven by India and Southeast Asia
Global supply to echo demand, rising at 0.6% CAGR by 2050
Chinese production to fall in 2024; exports to drive production in India
As Chinese supply tails off, India and Southeast Asia to add most capacity
China
- Demand
- Steel demand in 2023 fell 3% year-on-year, dragged down by the sluggish property sector
- Trade
- Supply
- Crude steel production to edge down by 1% in 2024
- H-DRI will ramp up in the long term but BF-BOF will dominate
- Demand
- Steel demand rose by a solid 17% year-on-year in 2023 but will temper down this year
- Supply
Japan
- Steel demand in 2024 to mirror last year. Near-term outlook bearish.
- Long-term prospects remain muted
- Capacity restructuring seems inevitable
- Supply to follow in demand footsteps
South Korea
- South Korean demand to outperform Japan in the near term
- Automobile and shipbuilding to lead in the medium term
- Growth to weaken over the long term
South-East Asia
- Steel consumption stayed flat in 2023; to rebound 5% in 2024
- Long-term prospects remain bullish on solid fundamentals
- Infrastructure to be a key growth determinant
- Housing and automotive production will support consumption
- Rising domestic production to falter finished steel imports
- Rise in BOF output will support hot metal; decarbonisation initiatives to accelerate post-2035
EU and the UK
- Macroeconomic outlook
- A slow path to recovery for European construction
- Switch to electric vehicles to surpass long term auto demand
- EU trade unaffected by Russian sanctions
- EU steel production to gain momentum in 2024, EAF to dominate in the 2030s
- CBAM and ETS to drive up long-term carbon prices
- European long-term production strategies
Turkey
- Monetary pressures continue to dampen post-earthquake reconstruction efforts
- EAF share of production will continue to dominate, reaching 80% by 2050
- Exports to stay restricted amid rising domestic consumption
- Turkey is well positioned to benefit from CBAM
Russia
- DEMAND
- Russian steel demand surged by 10% year-on-year in 2023 despite the ongoing war
- Long term demand to remain stable
- SUPPLY & TRADE
- Sanctions will restrict medium-term production long term production to grow at a CAGR 1%
Ukraine
- DEMAND
- Steel demand to skyrocket until 2030 amidst the reconstruction boom
- SUPPLY & TRADE
- Steelmakers shift focus from exports as domestic demand takes centre stage
Middle East
- Middle East to emerge as a key H-DRI producing hub
North Africa
- Demand
- Supply
US
- Steel demand to be policy-driven in the near term, led by the Inflation Reduction Act
- Long-term construction growth to remain subdued
- Steel demand from autos to flatline in the long term
- EAF’s dominance to expand to nearly 80% by 2050
- Hydrogen-based DRI to account for a third of total DRI production
Mexico and Canada
Brazil
- Iron Ore
- Coal
- Steel prices continue to stabilise in 2023
- Long term steel prices to track the raw material price trend
- Steel price forecast
- Scrap prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 71 images and tables including:

Global steel production outlook: EAF% to rise
Regional steel production outlook (2022-2050)

Decarbonisation outlook
Japan's steel demand on a downward trend
Japan’s steel capacity to shrink by 17% by 2050
South Korean steel demand to saturate
Capacity to witness a slight uptick
Southeast Asia: Demand outlook by country
Middle East: steel consumption outlook
Middle East steel capacity (Mt)
Steel production (Mt) and utilisation (%)
Steel consumption outlook (Mt)
Steel production outlook (Mt)
Canada's finished steel consumption
Mexico's Car industry and Construction sector
Brazil production and demand recovery
Global average crude steel production costs
Demand growth by region
China real estate–floor space YTD (in mil m2)
Chinese developer financing
Steel demand declined after a rebound in Q1 2023; overall demand dropped by 3% y-o-y
Demand to stay flat in 2024; construction declines to drag on demand after
China’s weakening demographics
Urbanisation to drop significantly btw 2021-2025
Steel demand outlook (2023-2050)
Overall steel production by technology
Hydrogen steelmaking in China
Capital expenditure under the Union Budget 2024
Steel demand outlook (Mt)
Per capita consumption (kgs)
Key decarbonisation initiatives by ISPs
Metallics demand outlook (Mt)
Steel production outlook (Mt)
Japan’s steel supply mix is in for an overhaul
Hydrogen-based steel production outlook
Crude steel production: EAF to gain prominence
Hydrogen-based steel production outlook
The fight for decarbonisation
Key infrastructure projects
BF-BOF capacity on a rise
Finished steel imports as % of demand to decline
Hot metal production to gain momentum
Hydrogen-based steel production outlook
EU27+UK steel demand by industry to 2050 (million tonnes)
Outlook of steel production by technology
Outlook of EU27+UK Metallics demand
Hydrogen-based DRI EAF production forecast to 2050
European steelmaking strategies illustration
Turkish steel supply demand outlook
Demand-supply outlook (Mt)
Export outlook (Mt)
Demand outlook (Mt)
Production and export outlook (Mt)
DRI production (Mt)
Steel production by technology (Mt)
US demand by sector
US trade and production
Average EAF burden mix
EAF vs BF-BOF share in total steelmaking
China hot rolled coil price and cost
Europe hot rolled coil price and cost
China rebar price and cost
Europe rebar price and cost
US hot rolled coil price and cost
US rebar price and cost
HRC price forecast
Rebar price forecast
Scrap price forecast
Metallics price forecast