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11 Pages

Power sector gas burn growth: decomposition of causes


Power sector gas burn growth: decomposition of causes

Report summary

Gas consumption in the power sector is expected to grow by 34% between 2013 and 2025, from 21.4 bcfd to 28.7 bcfd in the Lower-48 states. This represents both the largest absolute and percentage growth of all of the major demand sectors. To gain a better understanding of the sources of this growth, in this report we segregate the changes in gas burn into five distinct categories, estimate the contribution of each of these changes to the overall change in the gas burn, and analyze key risks...

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  • Power sector gas burn growth: decomposition of causes PDF - 614.02 KB 11 Pages, 0 Tables, 9 Figures

Description

This Gas Markets Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For participants, suppliers and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues surrounding this topic, this report gives you an expert point of view to help inform your decision making.

We provide detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive Summary
  • Power sector gas burn growth
  • Gas-fired generation: Strong growth in the medium and long term
  • Gas burn growth: primarily driven by higher loads
    • Electric loads: Growing, albeit not at historic levels
    • Coal plant retirements: Only beginning to accelerate
    • Clean generation additions: Limiting market for coal and gas
      • Nuclear: Few new plants
      • Renewables: Major capacity growth, lower energy growth
    • Coal displacement: Gas loses ground with rising prices-until carbon
  • Conclusions

In this report there are 9 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive Summary
  • Power sector gas burn growth
  • Gas-fired generation: Strong growth in the medium and long term
    • Chart 1. US Lower-48 power-sector gas burn
  • Gas burn growth: primarily driven by higher loads
    • Chart 2. Drivers of gas burn change from 2013
    • Chart 3. Load growth history and outlook
    • Chart 4. Cumulative coal retirements
    • Figure 1. RPS compliance outlook, 2025
    • Chart 5. Zero-carbon energy growth, average GW
    • Chart 6. Gas and coal price forecast
    • Chart 7. Cost of electricity versus carbon price
    • Chart 8. Coal displacement versus coal-gas price ratio
  • Conclusions
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