Power sector gas burn growth: decomposition of causes

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25 September 2013

Power sector gas burn growth: decomposition of causes

Report summary

Gas consumption in the power sector is expected to grow by 34% between 2013 and 2025, from 21.4 bcfd to 28.7 bcfd in the Lower-48 states. This represents both the largest absolute and percentage growth of all of the major demand sectors. To gain a better understanding of the sources of this growth, in this report we segregate the changes in gas burn into five distinct categories, estimate the contribution of each of these changes to the overall change in the gas burn, and analyze key risks...

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Power sector gas burn growth
  • Gas-fired generation: Strong growth in the medium and long term
    • Electric loads: Growing, albeit not at historic levels
    • Coal plant retirements: Only beginning to accelerate
    • Clean generation additions: Limiting market for coal and gas
      • Nuclear: Few new plants
      • Renewables: Major capacity growth, lower energy growth
    • Coal displacement: Gas loses ground with rising prices-until carbon
  • Conclusions

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

  • Chart 1. US Lower-48 power-sector gas burn
  • Chart 2. Drivers of gas burn change from 2013
  • Chart 3. Load growth history and outlook
  • Chart 4. Cumulative coal retirements
  • Chart 6. Gas and coal price forecast
  • Chart 7. Cost of electricity versus carbon price
  • Chart 8. Coal displacement versus coal-gas price ratio
  • Figure 1. RPS compliance outlook, 2025
  • Chart 5. Zero-carbon energy growth, average GW

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Power sector gas burn growth: decomposition of causes

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