Southern Cone gas and power short-term outlook: February 2024 Report

Commodity Market Report 01 March 2024

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Report summary

As El Niño nears its end, reservoirs in Brazil finished the month at 62% capacity, down 19% YoY, but recovery is expected in the north subsystem after the severe 2023 drought. The phenomenon dropped water inflow in Chile, decreasing from 2.5 GW-avg to 1.5 GW-avg in February. Even so, reservoir levels remain close to the maximum recorded in the last 12 years. In Argentina, the delay in the Gasoducto del Norte reversal (phase II) represents a risk of greater dependency on Bolivian gas. TGN offered its workforce to the Government to reverse compressing stations, ensuring gas supply from Neuquen to Salta in July/August 2024. Bolivia also faces a significant challenge in export prospects in 2025, unless Argentina increases its imports from Bolivia and Brazil faces delays in the commencement of operations at Rota 3.